An all-out trade war would severely damage the U. Bilateral U. The spring meetings fall just as U. Citing success in the talks, U. Macroeconomic factors, not tariffs, explain most of the changes in trade balances between two countries over the past two decades. According to a range of models cited by the report, the hypothesis showed annual growth in China could be 1. Under the scenario explored by the IMF, Canada and Mexico could ultimately benefit as they export more to the United States, making up for the shortfall in U. And according to one model, these shifting export relations among countries would mean that, while the U. As China continues to emerge as a budding superpower, experts are warning that a broad untangling of the two economies could be inevitable as policymakers in Washington increasingly view Beijing as a threat to American military and economic primacy.
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IMF baseline scenario points to a very robust growth in at 4. IMF predicts that in baseline scenario US current account deficit will widen to 6. In the risk scenario, when housing prices fall, it may shave off additional 1 percent of US growth. The ten million dollar question is whether the risk scenario will materialize.